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I have such fond memories of Arc Sundays. This year, I won’t be going along but the first Sunday of October represents the end of summer and the start of winter for me, an ex-Parisian ex-pat who goes back to 98 and Sagamix. I remember Sakhee, Dalakhani, Bago, Hurricane Run and what on earth happened last year with Dylan Thomas? I still haven’t understood that one - but some day the system has to break!

This year’s Arc looks like it will be huge - there’s massive money on offer, and an array of talented 3-year olds that would make the Derby blush.

The British challenger, Duke of Marmalade, has been storming up the betting lists in the UK, to such an extent that he may even challenge Zarkava for favouritism come the off. However, I must underline the fact that this race runs true to form 8 times out of 10. Last year, in my opinion, was a blip caused by the fact that the French challenger, Zambezi Sun, just wasn’t good enough.

The winner is a French-trained 3-year old colt who has won the Prix Niel in the same year (September) and is probably unbeaten.

Now this applies to every horse in the ten years that I went to Longchamp - and it worked every time. Remember Rail Link? 3-year old French-trained colt who had won the Prix Niel. Hurricane Run? Ditto. Bago? Ditto - although I’m not sure about the Prix Niel, which applies 6 times out of 10.

Now - this year we have a contender, although not from such an illustrious background. Trained in the Sarthe by Eric Libaud, Vision d’Etat is 8/1. He won the Prix Niel, he won the French derby, and it’s hard to believe that his odds are so long.

However, most years, you won’t see a filly like Zarkava. Zarkava is unbeaten and won the Prix Vermeille recently at Longchamp with some style. This is one hell of a filly, and all eyes will be on her as she is bound to start off favourite unless the Brits really do pile their money on the Duke this Sunday.

For me, the race will be between the French horses - with the main challenges coming from the Arc specialist Soldier of Fortune (clearly laid out for the Arc) and Youmzain, who is horribly consistent. Duke of Marmalade might be a great horse but British-trained horses rarely win at the Arc - in fact, they have a very poor record indeed.

My tip is Vision d’Etat each way and Zarkava to win it - and if you’re going for broke, put a fiver on Soldier of Fortune each way, too. Good horse. It’s Arc Sunday, and I’m regretting not having bought a ticket to Paris for the weekend. If I miss anything about living there, it’s the Arc - a once-a-year reminder of the end of summer, the beginning of winter, and of the greatness of horse racing.